Transactional activity regained momentum, with the median property price reaching CHF 996,800 (+1.5% QoQ). In the residential sector, the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio remained stable, reflecting prudent risk management by financing institutions in an environment of unchanged interest rates.

Residential mortgages: solid fundamentals

Mortgages for owner-occupied housing remain a pillar of the market, with a total volume of CHF 11.07 billion. The average loan size increased by 5% to CHF 630,000.

The Swiss National Bank’s decision to keep the SARON rate at 0% continues to benefit borrowers. For a CHF 900,000 loan, the 0.72% spread between the best and worst market offers represents a potential annual saving of CHF 6,480. Acceptance rates for high-quality residential cases remain high, although lenders continue to apply strict selection criteria.

Investment properties: a strong rebound in volumes

The income-generating property segment recorded growth of 21.26% quarter-on-quarter, reaching CHF 12.55 billion. While investor appetite is increasing, lenders are adopting a more conservative stance in response to Basel III regulations.

The median loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for investment properties declined to 63.8% (from 64.3% in Q3). Banks now favor cases with strong cash flows and proven energy efficiency. Refinancing large assets remains challenging, as financial institutions focus on reducing leverage.

Rates and lender landscape: increasing selectivity

The lender landscape is becoming more fragmented. While banks are returning to the investment segment, pension funds are increasing their allocations to the mortgage market. By contrast, insurers are less active in new business, focusing instead on managing their existing portfolios.

Key highlights for Q4

• Net volume of new mortgages reached CHF 23.62 billion.
• The spread between the best and worst offers stands at 0.72%.
• The median LTV ratio for investment properties declined to 63.8%.
• Financing for development projects remains difficult to access.

2026 outlook: toward a moderate rise in fixed rates

For 2026, Resolve expects an asymmetry between Swiss monetary policy and international pressures:

• SARON outlook: A rate of 0.00% remains the central scenario, with Swiss inflation contained between 0.3% and 0.5%.
• Fixed rates: Influenced by global interest rate markets (IRS), a slight increase of +0.15% to +0.30% in 10-year fixed rates is expected by year-end.
• Arbitrage: The window of opportunity to lock in long-term rates at historically low levels is gradually narrowing for the residential sector.