But this rebound is mechanical, not a signal of recovery: spring structurally concentrates purchase decisions and deal closings. The year-on-year reading confirms this unambiguously, with a decline of -3.9% in number and -5.1% in volume.

This persistent annual contraction is explained by three structural headwinds. First, the shortage of supply in the major economic hubs (the Lake Geneva region, Zurich, Central Switzerland), where demand durably exceeds available properties. Second, the deterioration of employment in high-value-added sectors: ILO unemployment reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2021, and hits precisely the pharmaceutical, finance and international organisation sectors that feed the core of the buyer base. Third, household wait-and-see behaviour, visible in the +14.3% year-on-year rise in M1: households are saving and hoarding rather than investing.

Above all, this quarter confirms that the market now runs on two distinct clocks. SARON, steered by an SNB on hold, remains stable. The long-term fixed rate, however, remains hostage to imported volatility. One conviction stands out for the rest of the year: waiting for a rate cut before deciding is no longer a defensible strategy.

Residential and investment: two markets, two logics

The owner-occupied residential segment confirms its status as a safe haven. With 13,872 transactions for a volume of CHF 10.4 billion, it captures 63% of the market and grows by +12.1% QoQ. Demand for primary housing remains inelastic to short economic cycles.

Investment property (income-generating real estate) also posted a seasonal rebound (+9.2% QoQ, 6,404 transactions for CHF 6.6 billion), but declined by -6.7% year-on-year. More importantly, it reveals an unprecedented internal divergence that SNB data now allows us to separate: companies are raising their leverage, returning to the rational calculation of opportunity cost in an environment where money remains cheap; investor households, by contrast, are deleveraging, out of wealth-preservation caution and wait-and-see behaviour.

The signal of the quarter: the first-time buyer at the cap

This is the most structural observation of the quarter. The median loan-to-value ratio on new primary-residence acquisitions reaches 79.33% at Resolve, nearly 12 percentage points above the median published by the SNB for the residential market as a whole (67.7%). In other words, half of our buyers are now borrowing up to the maximum allowed under prudential regulations.

This is neither speculation nor a loosening of lending standards. It is the arithmetic constraint of a market where prices are structurally rising faster than wages and savings: available equity does not accumulate at the same pace as property values, and the borrowed fraction converges mechanically towards the 80% regulatory cap. In this context, structuring your application in advance and systematically putting lenders in competition has never been more decisive.

Rates: the quarter of the bell

Q2 2026 will be remembered as the most volatile quarter since 2022. The 10-year CHF IRS, the funding underlying of the fixed mortgage rate, jumped by nearly 40 bps between late February and mid-May in the wake of the escalation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, before retreating almost entirely following the announcement of its reopening. In six weeks, markets priced and then unpriced a major geopolitical risk premium.

The median 10-year fixed client rate stands at 1.71% for the quarterly average (+9 bps QoQ), while SARON remains anchored at a median margin of 1.00%. This divergence accelerates the rotation towards SARON and shortens fixed durations (8.09 years on average). Pricing asymmetry remains massive: 75 bps separate the best 10-year offer negotiated this quarter (1.51%) from the least competitive (2.26%), or up to CHF 6,750 in annual savings on a CHF 900,000 loan.

Lenders: Basel III sorts the market

The divide between lenders is widening. Institutions that anticipated Basel III – major national banks, certain cantonal banks – are regaining an appetite for income-generating real estate and gaining market share. The others are managing day-to-day, sorting their portfolios and refocusing on residential. The standalone mortgage, without any other banking relationship, has almost disappeared.

Two new differentiation axes are emerging. First-rank financing, which consumes less regulatory capital, opens up more attractive conditions. And the green mortgage is confirming itself: loans conditioned on the property's energy performance can be refinanced via green funds or covered bonds, a cost advantage partly passed on to the client.

H2 2026 outlook: no rate cut in sight

The SNB held its policy rate at 0% on 18 June and is not expected to touch it before year-end: SARON will remain stable. On the 10-year fixed rate, however, we rule out any scenario of a marked decline. No disinflationary support is in sight, the Fed hardened its tone in June, and the risk of US stagflation is anything but marginal.

We retain three scenarios for the quarterly average of the 10-year fixed rate: a stabilisation between 1.60% and 1.80% (low scenario), a continued rise towards 1.90-2.00% (our central conviction), or a breach of 2.10-2.30% in the event of confirmed stagflation (high scenario). One thing depends on no profile: waiting for a rate cut to optimise your decision is no longer a defensible strategy in 2026.

Focus: private real estate debt

Heightened bank selectivity and the tightening of Basel III have opened a structural financing gap on the operations banks no longer address: development, completion, bridge loans, high-LTV refinancing. It is in this gap that Swiss private real estate debt is developing, a market estimated at around CHF 10 billion per year and rapidly institutionalising. For the qualified investor, it offers net returns of 9 to 12% p.a., backed by a physical Swiss asset and a short horizon. Resolve is active in this segment through Bridge Capital, its division specialised in private real estate debt.

In this fragmented and ultra-selective market, information asymmetry has never been greater. Simply comparing rates is no longer enough: structuring your application in advance to meet the specific requirements of each lender type has become essential.